Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

You can only bet once, and you will bet all your savings, your house, and basically everything that belongs to you, in dollars.
ofc you get disqualified if your net value is negative

If you win, you get back double your bet.

If you lose, you get nothing.

What's the lowest chance of winning that you will accept and play this gamble for, and why?

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

100% fuck that shit

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

I'm a Las Vegas native.

I know what gambling does to people, leonid.

and to have you make light of it just makes me sick.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

I will prolly go for 95% or something

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

does this have to do with some new google service you're working on because i don't like where this is going

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

new yt feature, double your views or get all your videos deleted

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

70%

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

t͈̤̤̗̦̘͢h̨̥̺̦̭i̥s̤̪͡ ̛i̶̲s̩̪̙̻̮̭ ̗̜j̸̠̠̯̹ú̘st̜͈̬͟ͅ ͎̟͙̩ṭhe͎̘ͅ ͏͕̖͍̰b̮͉͙̤e̥̙̩̬g̡͙̺͕̬̼͙͔i̶n͔̝̤͠n̩̘͉̲in̦̣͇͈̳g̴̯̪͇͇̗̺

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

nope but I do like how people relate to google every single thing I do

it's like i'm a walking google

in fact i'm a mere engineer that can be replaced any time

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

100%, hands down (pardon the pun). This simply isn't a bet I could take.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

Nope, never.

I've seen roulette wheels spin the same colour 20+ times in a row and a bunch of other bullshit at casinos, fuck probability.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

101%

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

It would have to be pretty dang high (in the 90%s, I think). I could recover from losing all my monetary assets, but I really really wouldn't want to have to.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

Edit: misread the question

I'll say 99.99%

If this were one time that is. Iterated version would go higher obv.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

The numbers are kind of arbitrary, but having no wealth would be about 20 times worse than having as much wealth as I have now; having twice as much wealth as I have now would be about 1.5 times better. So no wealth would be a loss of 19, and double wealth would be a gain of .5

.5 * x > 19 * (100-x) where 'x' is the chance of winning
approximately 97.4%

The % you'd reasonably be willing to accept depends on how much you value the change in wealth to no wealth and wealth to double wealth.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

It depends on your utility curve and where the different states fall

Shit is cray

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

can you explain what you mean in layman's terms

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

This game is the kind where you MUST win at any cost.

The question asks about how low a probability can go for you to stay confident that it will happen

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

:confused: obviously 100% for anyone then

you can only be 99% confident that you'll win if you win 99% of the time

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

Why do people always overthink my questions
is it because my avatar is a robot

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

too many maths and overthinking


oh wait i'm on ffr. nvm

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

Considering the only things I have right now are my cash value and my computers essentially (living in campus dorms, eating meal plan... can I lose those in this??) I think I'd be a little more willing to go for something like this than a number of people. I bet a homeless guy on the side of the road would take you up on the offer pretty quick

edit: In relation to "how low could the percentage go before you lost confidence that you'd win?" I'd have to say around 90% or so regardless of the value of winning / cost of losing for me... after that point I'd just be pretty darn uncertain, and more-so the lower it went.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

yes

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

honestly this probably doesn't help people imagine you as a normal person :p

I feel like a utility calculation (like ilikexd's post) is a good idea in theory, and would be quite reasonable for someone who could easily start over from nothing, even if it might be a hassle for them to do so. Personally, the probability I'd want obeys something like Hofstadter's law - I'll always want less risk than what the calculation says, even if the calculation takes this into account.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

I could dare a 75% considering I haven't got anything that's particularly high in value. At same time, it's not even worth trying. Yolo~

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

I don't really have anything I couldn't get back so the lowest might be something like 50-66%. I like to live dangerously. :]

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

leonid what you smokin bro

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

gambling's alright if you're smart about it (e.g., knowing your odds and not blowing money on roulette or keno)

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

If what you're trying to get at is a game you must win at any cost, then I don't think you're giving good enough incentive or disincentive.

Some people are just careless. Some people have like 100$ to their name and would gamble with really low odds. Some gambling addicts basically do this as par for the course. Some people with a lot of money might really want double that money to start up a business or something and they're highly driven to get MORE but don't really care one way or the other if they have less. Someone who's manic at the point in time of making the choice is likely to set a lower limit. On the flip side someone who's totally depressed and has little/no sense of self preservation could set that really low too.

I just don't see the answers you're getting would be good representations of people's internal views of probability but more of, say, their mental health and status in society.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

Well, I pooled the total of all of my assets not long ago for insurance purposes and given what I know about what I could lose and my line of credit situation, doubling it would help me out substantially and losing it all would hurt but in the grand scheme of things would be easy to recover from.

So I'd be pretty willing to do this. 90% would be a for sure thing. Maybe a bit lower.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

i don't think i would ever accept this gamble no matter what the chances are (unless they are 100%, obv). i am rather content with my current quality of life and i don't want to give that up.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

took my post way too seriously


#baited

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

90%

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

50%. I know how to fully recover from a pitfall, and it would probably only take me about 3 months to get everything back up to speed.

Money is just a tool, and if I lost, who cares? Brand new opportunity to change my life either way.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

I could live off the land and enjoy myself, maybe that would be a gamble won if it were a loss. There's just less of a security blanket over everything; at least it would force me to get out and have a sense of adventure, rather than spend my life in a linear routine until I'm too old to continue that linear routine.

And if I won? Then I wouldn't need to dedicate to that routine as much, I'd be twice as well off. In a way it's win-win but in two VASTLY different ways. It would very well be a loss for some each way too. Being too well off, you might do nothing but spend it all, and be owned by your possessions. If you necessitate having possessions, then losing the gamble would be a loss too. But there's always someone who would consider each outcome a win.

Also SnowCrafta it's all your possessions too remember~ that's the kicker for me.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

twice my life savings is like $10

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

1%

yolo